ARTYKUŁ
Typology of exchange rate forecasting methods
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1
Instytut Ekonomii i Finansów UKSW, Uniwersytet Kardynała Stefana Wyszyńskiego, Polska
2
Katedra Finansów i Rachunkowości · Pracownia Zarządzania Finansami Przedsiębiorstwa, Wydział Zarządzania Uniwersytet Warszawski, Polska
Submission date: 2023-11-11
Final revision date: 2023-12-29
Acceptance date: 2024-05-15
Online publication date: 2024-08-20
Corresponding author
Jarosław Klepacki
Katedra Finansów i Rachunkowości · Pracownia Zarządzania Finansami Przedsiębiorstwa, Wydział Zarządzania Uniwersytet Warszawski, Szturmowa 1/3, 02-678, Warszawa, Polska
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ABSTRACT
Forecasts look for a conditional expected value and too often refer to linear regression models that are irrational from the point of
view of time series. Simple averaging has its advantages, but it must take into account other external factors that may contradict the
mathematical formulas and modeling schemes used. For this reason, the aim of this article is to present a typology of exchange rate
forecasting methods as an interdisciplinary paradigmatic framework for optimizing the possibility of determining the price of a given
monetary unit of a given country expressed in other monetary units. The hypothesis was adopted that the impact of fundamental
categories on the exchange rate and its microstructure require the ability to alternate between quantitative and qualitative forecasting
models and the theory of exchange rates in economic theory. The research limitation is the deliberate abandonment of forecast analyzes
of the exchange rate using econometrics, the apparatus of mathematical economics, or the qualitative school of forecasting results
themselves, in favor of an analysis of the literature on the subject of research and an attempt to subjectively and openly catalog them.