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The Possibility to Tap into the Potential of Domestic Demand as a Key Benefit of Currency Depreciation in the Face of a Negative Shock
 
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1
Capital Strategy Sp. z o.o. Sp. k., Polska
 
2
Bank Pekao S.A., Polska
 
 
Submission date: 2026-01-10
 
 
Final revision date: 2026-03-30
 
 
Acceptance date: 2026-04-28
 
 
Online publication date: 2026-10-28
 
 
Corresponding author
Stefan Kawalec   

Capital Strategy Sp. z o.o. Sp. k., Polska
 
 
 
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ABSTRACT
This article examines the impact of currency depreciation on two components of GDP—net exports and domestic demand—under negative shocks. Drawing on theoretical analysis and empirical examples of two significant episodes in economic history, we demonstrate that the main benefit of currency depreciation under negative shocks is not necessarily an increase in net exports, but rather the ability to maintain a high level of domestic demand without disturbing external equilibrium. This issue is crucial for understanding the impact of a flexible exchange rate on the economy during a crisis. Rosati (2022) argues that the main factor that allowed Poland to avoid recession during the global financial crisis was not the zloty depreciation but the fiscal expansion that led to an increase in consumption. However, the simulation presented in this article shows that both factors were important. Without the zloty depreciation, fiscal easing would not have prevented the GDP decline in 2009. The depreciation of the zloty made it possible to stimulate domestic demand during the crisis while increasing net exports, thus protecting Poland against a decline in GDP.
eISSN:2299-6184
ISSN:0013-3205
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