ARTYKUŁ
Assessment of the effectiveness of IKE and PPK in the face of demographic changes and falling replacement rates in Poland
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1
Wydział Ekonomiczny, Katedra Ekonomii i Polityki Gospodarczej w Agrobiznesie, Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu, Polska
2
Wydział Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu; Katedra Ekonomii i Polityki Gospodarczej w Agrobiznesie, Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu, Polska
These authors had equal contribution to this work
Submission date: 2025-07-07
Final revision date: 2026-01-23
Acceptance date: 2026-02-03
Online publication date: 2026-05-06
Corresponding author
Aldona Mrówczyńska-Kamińska
Wydział Ekonomiczny, Katedra Ekonomii i Polityki Gospodarczej w Agrobiznesie, Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu, Wojska Polskiego 28, 60-637, Poznań, Polska
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JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES
ABSTRACT
The study analyzes the impact of demographic changes on Poland’s projected pension deficit and proposes a solution based on
voluntary pension programs. The replacement rate – the ratio of average pension to average salary – fell from 60% in 2017 to
55.92% in 2023, and according to ZUS forecasts, will drop to 25.24% by 2060. This erosion of benefit value increases the annual
pension gap from 10,551 PLN in 2023 to 90,921 PLN in 2060. In modeling the third pillar, the share and growth rate of contributions
in PPK (2% of salary) and IKE (10% of salary after deducting PPK contribution) were considered, assuming rates of return of 3.125%
for PPK and 7% (share-based part) and 3% (long-term part) for IKE. Modeling results for 2060 indicate that the total value of funds
invested in PPK and IKE will reach 1,634,342 PLN, covering 86% of the pension gap for those retiring at age 60 and 106% for those
retiring at 65. IKE plays a dominant role (about 82% of accumulated capital), and the effect of compound interest prevails after 20
years of saving. The study highlights the need for reforms and stronger incentives for long-term saving.